3 Scenarios to Watch in 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical juncture in 2025, with on-chain data suggesting the potential for a major price surge or a prolonged consolidation.

Axel Adler Jr, an analyst at CryptoQuant, has outlined three possible scenarios for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, each hinging on key momentum indicators and historical patterns.

Bullish Surge, Sideways Grind, or Sharp Correction?

In his analysis, Adler highlighted BTC’s current position in the “start rally” zone, with the on-chain momentum ratio sitting at 0.8 (80%). This metric tracks investor behavior through Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), and it suggests that Bitcoin is primed for movement. However, according to the analyst, the direction remains uncertain.

In the most optimistic scenario, BTC could experience a breakout above the critical 1.0 ratio threshold, signaling a full-blown bullish impulse. And if history repeats itself, like in 2017 and 2021, the rally could push Bitcoin as high as $175,000 within the next six months.

The second, more moderate path shared by the expert predicts a consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000, with investors holding the asset but shying away from aggressive accumulation.

Adler’s third and least favorable outlook involves a drop below 0.75%, which, in his opinion, would trigger profit-taking by short-term holders and a potential correction to anywhere between $70,000 and $85,000.

Given that Bitcoin already suffered a pullback in early April, the market watcher believes there is a greater probability of the first two scenarios occurring.

Realized Cap Hits All-Time High

The bullish case has been reinforced by Bitcoin’s realized capitalization, which hit an all-time high of $882.2 billion on April 29. Unlike traditional market cap, realized capitalization measures the value of crypto assets based on the price at which they last moved.

This metric is used to filter out dormant or lost coins and reflects a more grounded estimate of the actual value active participants have placed into BTC.

There is historical precedence showing large spikes in realized cap often jumpstart strong price rallies, and the new high could be taken as a sign that there is renewed confidence from both retail and institutional investors.

Carmelo Alemán, also an analyst at CryptoQuant, noted that the recent steady buildup in Bitcoin’s price could be laying the ground for its next explosive run upwards.

This sense of pent-up momentum is being echoed in recent whale behavior. According to Ali Martinez, in the last two weeks, high-powered BTC investors have added more than 43,000 BTC, valued at nearly $4 billion, into their holdings.

The increased accumulation comes after a selling pause earlier in the year caused by the uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions around U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive foreign trade stance.

Meanwhile, at the time of writing, the king cryptocurrency was trading at $95,177, up a minuscule 0.4% in the last 24 hours and 3.5% over the past week.