Will the XRP price crash to $1 or jump to $3.5 first?

Ripple price remains in a bear market after falling by over 35% from its highest level in January. 

Ripple (XRP) rose for the second consecutive day as cryptocurrencies rebounded after the encouraging inflation data. Most of them rose, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Cardano (ADA) rising by over 3%.

XRP also rose after Franklin Templeton applied for a spot exchange traded fund or ETF on Tuesday. 

The company, which manages over $1.5 trillion in assets, joined other firms like WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, Grayscale, Canary, and CoinShares that have applied for a spot XRP ETF.  Polymarket users have boosted their odds for a spot XRP ETF approval to almost 80%. 

XRP is also one of the tokens that Donald Trump has identified to be in the US digital coins stockpile. If approved, it would lead to more demand as the US uses its strong balance sheet to acquire these coins.

One of XRP’s biggest strengths is its ability to disrupt the payment industry that SWIFT now dominates. Ripple claims that its technology is better than SWIFT’s because its transactions take just a few seconds to complete. Its transactions are also cheaper than SWIFT’s.

One potential catalyst for this growth will be the ending of the lawsuit by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The conclusion of this case will likely let Ripple Labs add more banking partners to its network. Some of the current partners are companies like Santander, HSBC, SBI Holdings, and Bank of America.  The SEC has already dropped the lawsuits against Uniswap, Coinbase, and Kraken.

XRP price technical analysis: will it hit $1 or $3.5 first?

The daily chart shows that XRP price dropped to a key support at $1.9275 this week. This was crucial support since it has avoided dropping below it several times since December last year. 

It has become the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern that has been forming since December. The head of this pattern is at $3.4, while the shoulders are at $3. It has also dropped below the 100-day Weighted Moving Average.

Therefore, there is a risk that Ripple will have a bearish breakdown because H&S is one of the most bearish signs in the market. This breakdown, potentially to the psychological point at $1, will be confirmed if it drops below the neckline at $1.9275. $1 also coincides with the 78.6% retracement level.

On the flip side, a bullish breakout to $3 will be confirmed if the coin rises above the right shoulders at $3 and the year-to-date at $3.4. Such a move will invalidate the head and shoulders pattern and point to more upside.