A popular crypto analyst thinks Bitcoin (BTC) is currently mirroring the Japanese stock market’s giant rally about four decades ago.
The pseudonymous analyst TechDev shares charts with his 467,400 followers on the social media platform X that compare BTC’s performance since 2010 with the performance of the Nikkei 225, a price-weighted index that tracks 225 blue-chip companies trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, between the years 1950 and 2000.
TechDev’s charts suggest Bitcoin could crack $760,000 sometime between 2028 and 2029 before witnessing a multi-year bear market.
The top-ranked crypto asset by market cap is trading at $59,621 at time of writing.
The analyst also shares a chart that has a line for Bitcoin’s price and a line that pits the Chinese 10-year bonds (CN10Y) against M2SL, the seasonally adjusted measure of money supply in the United States.
Based on the trader’s chart, he appears to suggest that an expansion in the CN10Y against M2SL would trigger big Bitcoin rallies.
Last month, TechDev noted in a newsletter that he was optimistic about the recent downturn in the crypto market.
“Obviously, there is extreme fear in the market. The last two weeks were filled with ‘told you’ comments from doomer bears – on a retest to $48,000 levels they previously said would never be reached the last time they were doom-posting at $25,000.
Exactly what I like to see. The fact that it came at a time when global macro conditions are pointing up makes it nothing more than two weeks of loud noise to me. More like the last six months.
It’s usually the case in all speculative markets, but the last two years have reflected this more than any other time in the crypto market – it doesn’t move up until X is scared absolutely shitless. That was the case at $15,000 after the FTX crash, at $20,000 after regional banks were failing, at $38,000 after the brutal post-ETF wick, and now.
What you’ll also recall is how much sentiment can whiplash in a couple of weeks. Expecting it again. All the while, the global cycle continues to point higher.”
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