Will Bitcoin Bounce? Analysts Split on Next Major Move

Bitcoin hovers near $87.8K as analysts debate a short-term bounce or further drop, with key support and macro risks shaping the next move.

Bitcoin is trading near $87,800 after briefly falling to $86,000, its lowest level in over a month. Over the past seven days, the asset has dropped by more than 5%. In the last 24 hours, it slipped nearly 1%.

Analyst Sees Corrective Bounce Forming

Crypto analyst Junkie says Bitcoin has completed a five-wave bearish pattern based on Elliott Wave Theory, which often marks the end of a move. The analyst expects a short-term bounce before any further decline.

The chart shared shows a potential ABC correction forming. This includes a rise (A), a dip (B), and another push up (C). If this plays out, Bitcoin could retest a trendline from previous lows and possibly reach the $91,000 to $92,000 range. Junkie added:

“We may have a bit further down to go ($84k) until 5 waves finishes but if we haven’t reversed already, we will.”

A separate view from The Maverick of Wall Street points to a bear flag forming on the weekly chart. This type of setup often appears after a sharp fall. It forms a small upward channel, followed by another drop.

Bitcoin bear flag is playing out, see you at $60k$BTC pic.twitter.com/jsdXG8gKZQ

— The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) January 25, 2026

The breakdown from the flag points to a possible move down to $60,000. This matches a 31% fall from the recent range. Bitcoin has also fallen below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), which is around $101,000. The 200-week SMA, near $57,800, may be the next support if the downtrend continues.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Ongoing Weakness

Data from Alphractal shows that Bitcoin’s NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is falling but still above zero. In the past, cycle bottoms usually came only after this turned negative. That level signals full capitulation, which has not happened yet.

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Another key metric, Delta Growth Rate, has already turned negative. This suggests that speculative buying has slowed. A recent CryptoQuant report also shows that more holders are now selling at a loss. This is the first time in over two years that profit margins have dropped this much.

Bitcoin’s drop below $88,000 happened as macro pressures built. A possible US government shutdown and the Fed’s rate decision have made investors more cautious. The market is now sitting on key support levels. A break below may open the way for lower prices. A bounce, however, could retest previous highs in the short term.